Fundamental Analysis
The Dow Jones (US30) jumped 288 points (+0.68 %) on Tuesday, 25 June, buoyed by the Israel-Iran truce that trimmed the geopolitical risk premium and by hopes the Fed will ease policy after May new-home sales plunged 13.7 % m/m and foreign direct investment cooled. With Dow futures adding another 0.2 %, sentiment could keep improving today if U.S. data beat estimates and oil extends its rebound after an unexpected 5.8 Mb draw in weekly stockpiles, a tail-wind for heavyweights such as Chevron and Caterpillar. Focus now shifts to the final Q1 GDP print (consensus –0.2 %) and tomorrow’s PCE: markets now price an 84.41 % chance of a first 25-bp cut in September, down from 91 % yesterday, while the 10-year Treasury yield hovers near 4.27 %. Rumours that Trump may replace Powell have driven the dollar to a three-year low, fuelling rotation into US30 industrials and financials and helping gold break above $3,330/oz as a hedge against a potential loss of Fed independence.
Technical Analysis
US30 | H4
The index remains in an uptrend, consolidating in a brief pennant that hints at a fresh leg higher. The initial sessions’ POC sits at 43 016.90, and the last intraday key support at 41 999.45. Consider longs on a breakout of the upper pennant boundary, which also clears the 43 153.40 supply zone (daily resistance + yesterday’s supply POC), targeting 43 230, 43 300 and 43 500. The bullish setup is invalidated by a decisive move below 43 000 and the buyers’ POC at 42 913.09, opening the low-volume gap 42 750-42 650 and the daily bearish ADR around 42 623.73, close to the former resistance 42 549.53—zones that can reignite buying even within a correction.
Technical Summary
Bullish: Buy above 43 154 → 43 200 · 43 300 · 43 400 · 43 500; if momentum persists, watch round levels up to 44 000.
Bearish: Sell intraday below 42 900 → 42 750 · 42 650 · 42 700, then look for fresh longs.
Exhaustion/Reversal Pattern (ERP): Always wait for an ERP confirmation on M5 at the key zones (see 👉 https://t.me/spanishfbs/2258).
Untraded POC: The Point of Control is the price level with the highest volume; after a down-move, it acts as resistance, after an up-move as support.
